Friday, April 30, 2010

DYNAMIC RISK ASSESSMENT ON CHEMICAL TANKERS-- CAPT AJIT VADAKAYIL







DYNAMIC RISK ASSESSMENT matrix must consider SEVERITY , CERTAINTY and PERIOD OF IMPACT.

The whole world ignores PERIOD OF IMPACT. On risk prone parcel chemical tankers we do not have the luxury of ignoring this crucial factor. On stubbing your toe, you will get most " severe pain" , " certainly" for 3 seconds. Nobody minds this short period pain. However LONG period of such pain is not an option.

In a nutshell , DRA is the CONTINOUS ASSESSMENT of risk in a rapidly changing environment like a ship on fire, chemical tanker having toxic spill, or collision/ grounding. Or analyzing new control measures when the changing degree of risk demands it ( suddenly reserve buoyancy at risk --or as the fire spreads, new toxic gases are released ).

Commonsense and experience dictates that no risk assessment can be static – it has to be dynamic, as the events unfold. Focus on any emergency response must change as the incident evolves.

There is something as a –
Initial stage
Development stage
and
a closing stage.

In the development stage, safe systems of response have indeed been initially selected and assessed, additional control measures introduced and an optimum course of action chalked out.

A good emergency response system must assign a competent person to do the process of -- “ MEASUREMENT “ -- in a mundane PLAN/ ACT/ MEASURE/ IMPROVE cycle.

This “measurement squad” , boils down to a “roving squad” consisting of a think tank ( usually Chief engineer and Electrical officer ) who are the ears and eyes of a Master who is blind and deaf on the bridge—yet , has to take critical decisions. He is short of feedback from a clear / experienced / competent brain who is observing from dynamic vantage positions —in the lookout for coming shadows and thinking of ways to avoid secondary dangers, all the time reviewing the effectiveness of the existing control measures..

In the old system ( discarded whole sale by the entire Annex 1 and Annex 2 tanker industry 15 years back ) the chief engineer was relegated to maintaining essential services and doing normal watchkeeping in the engine room , where he is not as familiar with valves and pipelines as the usual EOW.

We had a situation where both the 4 stripers were deaf and blind, the 3 stripers are busy doing something, and nobody watching the larger DYNAMIC picture unfolding. On the contrary a 4 striper should be all over the place , including the engine room ( when warranted ) and on bridge to hold critical intelligence information exchanges on new tactical modes/ stopping something happening the wrong way , (based on DRA) with the Master .

 
It must be appreciated that everything cannot be told on the walkie talkie in an emergency—including a TRUE report on how the Chief Officer ( on OFFENSIVE TACTICAL MODE ) and Second Engineer ( on DEFENSIVE TACTICAL MODE ) is managing their teams –for engine emergencies vice versa.

In other words the ROVING SQUAD TAKES CARE OF THE TRANSITIONAL MODE including :---
monitoring the physical conditions of the offensive and defensive leaders,
evaluating competence of allocated tasks ,
evaluating the larger picture ( life/ property/ pollution/ image )
evaluating if the calculated risk taken outweighs the benefits.
--and if indeed so , if there are any viable alternatives.

He is now able to tender specialist advise to the blind and deaf decision maker on the bridge ( read that as Master )

+TRANSITIONAL ( THE CRACK FILLER ) = OFFENSIVE (+ )DEFENSIVE


THE PROCESS--

A seaman sees a huge round stone overhanging a ledge on the ship on top of a passage way used by the whole crew. He identifies this as a HAZARD.

Now what is a hazard?

A hazard is something which is of potential danger , but it has NOT YET HAPPENED . This can be compared to a fishing boat right ahead while sailing. The look out man who reports this to the OOW has reported a HAZARD.

ON PRO-ACTIVE CULTURED CHEMICAL TANKERS WE LIKE TO HEAR OF HAZARD WHICH HAVE NOT YET HAPPENED –THE SAME WAY THE BRIDGE OOW WILL TAKE A DIM VIEW OF THE LOOKOUT MAN WHO REPORTS FISHING BOATS IN THE SHIPS WAKE.

Once the fishing boat has gone behind the ships wake , it is no longer a hazard, for it has happened. It could now be classified as a NEAR MISS if the ship missed it narrowly or it just grazed the ship—scrapping off paint and causing a scratch.

Of course if the fishing boat was damaged severely or it sank it is now classified as an ACCIDENT.

Now let us get back to good old stone. The seaman has reported the stone , which is a source of potential harm, to the chief officer.

It is now the ships managements duty to do RISK ASSESSMENT and then do RISK MANAGEMENT.

RISK ASSESSMENT since it includes the consequences has 6 DYNAMIC aspects:--

Severity—minor loss ( injury ) to total loss ( death )

Time of impact /Recovery --- rapid recovery to irreversible ( first aid to full life in wheelchair / long term impact to environment )

Frequency--- remote to occasional to progressively increasing.( this is more related to security than safety-- if a car is driven daily it will have less chance of a breakdown than a car which is take out once in 2 years. But if you sail close to Somalian coast daily your chances of getting pirated is higher than if you sail once in 2 years ) 

Certainty--- 100% sure ? YES or NO

Image—loss of image is abstract and is about loss of business ( cannot trade in USA, loss of oil major long term time charters etc ).


The ships management holds a risk assessment meeting and now decides to do RISK MANAGEMENT based on the well known T4 principles—

1) Terminate/ throw the nil value stone overboard ( eliminate, amputate )

2) Treat/ Lash up the stone with wires and wedges ( safeguards like extinguishers, reduce risk to acceptable level )

3) Tolerate/ Isolate and manage ( close the passage or use a deflector so that it falls elsewhere, PPE )

4) Transfer/ Call for special and skilled help or advise. ( call a shore workshop )

What T to use-- is determined by weighing if the RESIDUAL risk outweighs the benefits.


Risk Matrix


RISK = POTENTIAL SEVERITY x IMPACT PERIOD X CERTAINTY ( AS A YES/ NO SWITCH )

TABLE 1, 2 AND 3 TO BE CHECKED, IF IN TABLE 3 ITEM “ YES” IS APPLICABLE.

THEN IN TABLE 4 , ITEM WILL BE ONE STEP HIGHER ( HIGH BECOMES UNACCEPTABLE,
MEDIUM GOES TO HIGH , LOW GOES TO MEDIUM )


TABLE 1 – POTENTIAL SEVERITY

Severity Category/ Health and Safety Impact/ Damage to Vessel-Property/ Environmental Impact/ Contamination of next cargo

V Fatal Accident Total Loss/ Major Impact to Environment
(Liquids -- spill/discharge in water > 1m3)/ Highly Contaminated/ Readily Apparent and vessel cannot pass manifold sample

IV Serious Accident with possible Permanent Injury Damage requiring external assistance/ Significant Impact to Environment (Liquids -- Spill/discharge in water > 150L and < 1m3)/ Vessel Cannot pass first foot sample/ III Serious Personal Injury Damage which can be repaired by crew/ Impact to Environment .(Liquids --Spill/discharge in water > 10L and < 150L)/ Possible Contamination of minor nature II Injury requiring Medical Treatment/ Minor damage/ Minor Impact to Environment (Liquids -- Spill/discharge in water > 1L and < 10L)/ Possible Contamination of insignificant nature I First Aid Injury/ Insignificant damage/ Little Impact to Environment (Liquids -- Spill/discharge in water < 1L)/ Contamination not affecting next cargo 

TABLE 2 – IMPACT PERIOD DIRECT AND INDIRECT Risk Letter/ Effect Time period A IRREVERSIBLE loss of company image and business PERMANENT B Major impact for very long time > 5 Years
C Moderate impact for long time >6 months – 1 year
D Some Impact for some time >1 day
E Minor impact for very short time < 1 Hour



TABLE 3 -- CERTAINTY

Risk Letter Certainty of Happening
Y -100 % SURE
N - Possible


TABLE 4 -- RISK MATRIX 

In cases where the Determined Risk is:

Un Acceptable : ABORT! Await shore senior management level decision
(Higher premiums to be paid)

High: Work shall NOT start. Appropriate additional controls taken to reduce
residual high risk level to Moderate or Low

Moderate: Efforts made to reduce the risk, with monitoring of the additional
controls that are implemented

Low: No additional controls required, monitoring required to ensure existing
controls are maintained

A B C D E
V U H H H M
IV H H H M M
III H H M M L
II H M M L L



Capt Ajit Vadakayil

9 comments:

  1. How to be in the moment and be snappy?
    This guy, Jimmy Carter at the age of 90 is sharper than me:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GEMI4JLPlY

    ReplyDelete
  2. CH
    October 13, 2014 at 6:35 AM
    Respected Captain,

    What is special about Tamil Nadu?

    How come it is able to continuously produce word geniuses like Ramanujam, Subrahmanyan Chandrasekhar, C.V. Raman, A.R. Rahman, Abdul Kalam, Venkatraman Ramakrishnan, Viswanathan Anand, Illayaraja, etc?

    Even till recently the Chief Justice of India, the Finance Minister, the RBI governor are all Tamils?

    Is there any scientific reason behind this? Because no other region has produced such super genius people in such numbers.

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    #####################
    Capt. Ajit Vadakayil
    October 13, 2014 at 7:06 AM
    hi ch,

    i am sure if i were a lawyer, i will NEVER EVER become CJI.

    i am sure if i were an economist, i will NEVER EVER become finance minister.

    you want me to continue ?

    when i was on my training ship in mumbai with 250 other cadets ( two years ) -- the biggest TELUs ( oily and slimy ) and SNEAKS ( snitches ) became SCC ( senior cadet captains ) , CC ( cadet captains ) , CL ( cadet leaders ) etc.

    i used to be in the CAPTAINS MONTHLY BREAKFAST PARTY ( cadet with maximum negative marks for OFFICER LIKE QUALITIES ) -- to be chewed up for breakfast every month .

    i got an EXTRA FIRST in every subject --except OFFICER LIKE QUALITIES.

    now what are OFFICER LIKE QUALITIES-

    being a son of a bit#h, being a sneak, being a hypocrite, being a as$ kisser , being a leader who will sell out his team, being a back biter, being an informer , being the best in playing to the gallery.

    so, so--

    at the passing out parade --most of the cadets who got all PRIXES were leaders -- they all got BOOOOOEEEEED !

    I remember i got only one prize--for being the best REPORTER IN ENGLISH -- the claps I got from the entire hall still resound in my ears -- along with another ROC ( royal officer cadet -who did NOT care to become a sold out leader ).

    and mind you -- i was in every single team which made my TOP ( starboard fore top ) the champion TOP.

    i was a champion sailor, rower, signaller, marks in subjects, soccer team in both years --

    but i lacked OLQ ( officer like qualities ) of being a FU#KIN' SLIME BALL.

    so in my passing our certificate , after two years of training -- i had an EXTRA FIRST in all subjects -- except OLQ where i was third grade

    so i guess they held a special meeting and GRACED ME TO FIRST CLASS --a young 18 year old boy -- .TEE HEEE !

    AT SEA, THE SAILORS DO NOT CARE FOR YOUR FOUR STRIPES- THEY ONLY CARE FOR WHO YOU ARE--

    AT SEA PEOPLE WHO KNOW ME , OR HAVE HEARD OF ME -- OR SAILED WITH ME, WILL VOUCH--

    CAPT AJIT VADAKAYIL WAS A SLAVE MORE POWERFUL THAN THE MIGHTY FU#KIN' CAESAR -- BY LIGHT YEARS .

    this has now passed on to LORE -- never ti happen again in the annals of sea .

    am i boasting ?

    -- so be it !

    humility is NOT about having a low opinion of yourselves to please the JEALOUS party.

    see, this would have been part of my post-- GAMES CAPTAIN PLAYED--

    you made me reveal it prematurely --with your TAMIL PRIDE ! TAKE IT EASY !

    check out my training ship-

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwpFBPMtnj4

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0BxC3kFET8

    capt ajit vadakayil
    ..

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hay Hay Capt., Do you have anyone in your circle who can write/ translate the same blogs in Hindi. The people you targeting or have targeted, are coming on every NEWS channel via "over glorified lens." Jaggi Vasudev is now being jotted in hindi version - Hindustan times and navbharat times. You have 2700+ readers. When I read your blogs and talk, I am no less then alien to them. Do you have any strategy to pierce up north. Or shall I do it?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. hi dds,

      i have no issues with readers translating my blogs in hindi -

      DO NOT OMIT OR INCLUDE ANYTHING - NOT EVEN A WORD..

      the translated post should have a link to the ORIGINAL post which is written in english in my blogsite .

      NOBODY IS ALLOWED TO MAKE MONEY OUT OF MY WRITINGS -- AS THE ORIGINAL IS FREE.

      YOUR BONUS IS -- YOU WILL HAVE GOOD READERSHIP -- WHICH IS MORE POTENT THAN NUCLEAR BOMBS .

      do NOT compare capt ajit vadakayil to sadguru jaggi vasudev-- i have seen this planet for 40 years --

      i am a technical man - not an english language graduate with NIL science base.

      capt ajit vadakayil
      ..

      Delete
  4. Hay Hay Capt., Do you have anyone in your circle who can write/ translate the same blogs in Hindi. The people you targeting or have targeted, are coming on every NEWS channel via "over glorified lens." Jaggi Vasudev is now being jotted in hindi version - Hindustan times and navbharat times. You have 2700+ readers. When I read your blogs and talk, I am no less then alien to them. Do you have any strategy to pierce up north. Or shall I do it?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Dear Ajit Paaji:

    I'm not sure if you are quitting or taking a sabbatical from blogging.
    Either way,am sure you are following your heart..

    Have Fun!God Bless you.

    Best Wishes,
    dkb.

    ReplyDelete
  6. DURING MY 30 YEARS OF COMMAND --

    ON EVERY SINGLE SHIP , IN SAFETY MEETINGS ( i hold it on the navigating bridge in the open ocean ) I TAKE THE SOUND MEGAPHONE --BASICALLY A CONE WITH A HOLE AND ASK -

    WHAT IS THE USE OF THIS?

    EVERY SINGLE SAILOR SAID - TO SHOUT OUR ALOUD , TO AMPLIFY THE VOICE AND DIRECT IT

    THIS IS BULLSHIT

    THE HOLE HAS TO BE APPLIED TO THE EAR TO CHANNEL IN ANY SOUND DURING FOG --SO THAT YOU KNOW WHAT IT IS COMING FROM

    WHEN TITANIC SANK IN FOG --THE STUPID BRITISH OFFICERS IN RESCUE BOATS WERE SCREAMING THEIR LUNGS OFF INTO THE MEGAPHONE "ANYBODY AROUND ?"

    AND POOR DROWNING PEOPLE STIFF WITH COLD WERE SHOUTING BACK-- "I AM HERE "

    THIS IS WHY I SAY " SOME PEOPLE CONFUSE THE MOUTH WITH ASSHOLE"

    THOUSANDS OF SAILORS DROWNED WHEN THE SHIPS SANK-- THE LIFE RAFTS DID NOT RELEASE

    IT TOOK A CAPT AJIT VADAKAYIL TO SET IT RIGHT -- IT TOOK A LOT OF FIGHTING AND KICKING COLLECTIVE BALLS

    IT TOOK ME 26 YEARS !

    SENDING EMAILS AND LETTERS TO VARIOUS AUTHORITIES , US COAST GUARD, CLASSIFICATION SOCIETIES, VETTING INSPECTORS, PORT STATE CONTROL , COMPANY BOSSES ETC

    EVEN MY OWN SAILORS COULD NOT UNDERSTAND --THEY COULD ONLY WHEN I EXPLAINED WITH FUCK / SHIT / FART ETC

    THIS IS HOW STUPID SAILORS ARE

    I PREVENTED MY ELDER SON FROM JOINING THE SEA

    HE WANTED TO BE CAPTAIN, LIKE HIS FATHER

    I SAID "NOTHING DOING ! YOU WILL BE BETWEEN DRIPPING CUNTS "

    http://ajitvadakayil.blogspot.in/2011/01/naive-sailor-sinking-ships-capt-ajit.html

    NOW YOU WILL GET THE DRIFT , WHY CAPT AJIT VADAKAYIL WAS A LIVING LEGEND AT SEA

    WHAT ABOUT LIFE BOATS ?

    IT TOOK ME 28 YEARS OF KICKING COLLECTIVE BALLS AND TWATS

    http://ajitvadakayil.blogspot.in/2011/01/single-hook-for-enclosed-lifeboats-capt.html

    http://ajitvadakayil.blogspot.in/2011/07/enclosed-lifeboat-accidents-and-imo.html

    WE HAD IMO TO SAVE THE LIVES OF SAILORS --THEY WERE THE BIGGEST CUNTS

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Maritime_Organization

    capt ajit vadakayil
    ..

    ReplyDelete
  7. DURING MY 30 YEARS OF COMMAND --

    ON EVERY SINGLE SHIP , IN SAFETY MEETINGS ( i hold it on the navigating bridge in the open ocean ) I TAKE THE SOUND MEGAPHONE --BASICALLY A CONE WITH A HOLE AND ASK -

    WHAT IS THE USE OF THIS?

    EVERY SINGLE SAILOR SAID - TO SHOUT OUR ALOUD , TO AMPLIFY THE VOICE AND DIRECT IT

    THIS IS BULLSHIT

    THE HOLE HAS TO BE APPLIED TO THE EAR TO CHANNEL IN ANY SOUND DURING FOG --SO THAT YOU KNOW WHAT IT IS COMING FROM

    WHEN TITANIC SANK IN FOG --THE STUPID BRITISH OFFICERS IN RESCUE BOATS WERE SCREAMING THEIR LUNGS OFF INTO THE MEGAPHONE "ANYBODY AROUND ?"

    AND POOR DROWNING PEOPLE STIFF WITH COLD WERE SHOUTING BACK-- "I AM HERE "

    THIS IS WHY I SAY " SOME PEOPLE CONFUSE THE MOUTH WITH ASSHOLE"

    THOUSANDS OF SAILORS DROWNED WHEN THE SHIPS SANK-- THE LIFE RAFTS DID NOT RELEASE

    IT TOOK A CAPT AJIT VADAKAYIL TO SET IT RIGHT -- IT TOOK A LOT OF FIGHTING AND KICKING COLLECTIVE BALLS

    IT TOOK ME 26 YEARS !

    SENDING EMAILS AND LETTERS TO VARIOUS AUTHORITIES , US COAST GUARD, CLASSIFICATION SOCIETIES, VETTING INSPECTORS, PORT STATE CONTROL , COMPANY BOSSES ETC

    EVEN MY OWN SAILORS COULD NOT UNDERSTAND --THEY COULD ONLY WHEN I EXPLAINED WITH FUCK / SHIT / FART ETC

    THIS IS HOW STUPID SAILORS ARE

    I PREVENTED MY ELDER SON FROM JOINING THE SEA

    HE WANTED TO BE CAPTAIN, LIKE HIS FATHER

    I SAID "NOTHING DOING ! YOU WILL BE BETWEEN DRIPPING CUNTS "

    http://ajitvadakayil.blogspot.in/2011/01/naive-sailor-sinking-ships-capt-ajit.html

    NOW YOU WILL GET THE DRIFT , WHY CAPT AJIT VADAKAYIL WAS A LIVING LEGEND AT SEA

    WHAT ABOUT LIFE BOATS ?

    IT TOOK ME 28 YEARS OF KICKING COLLECTIVE BALLS AND TWATS

    http://ajitvadakayil.blogspot.in/2011/01/single-hook-for-enclosed-lifeboats-capt.html

    http://ajitvadakayil.blogspot.in/2011/07/enclosed-lifeboat-accidents-and-imo.html

    WE HAD IMO TO SAVE THE LIVES OF SAILORS --THEY WERE THE BIGGEST CUNTS

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Maritime_Organization

    capt ajit vadakayil
    ..

    ReplyDelete
  8. THIS BLOGSITE ASKS MODI

    DO NOT ALLOW ANY MAJOR DECISIONS TO BE MADE WITHOUT A PROPER "RISK ASSESSMET"

    MAKE EVERY TEAM LEADER GO THROUGH A TRAINING COURSE

    AT SEA I WAS A LEADER AND PIONEER IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    MY METHOD DID NOT DOVE TAIL WITH THE THOUGHTS OF THE ESTABLISHMENT

    I TOLD THEM -- LAY OFF -- SACK ME IF YOU DARE -- FOR I WENT AGAINST THE ESTABLISHED SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM - AND THE ISM CODE , DEVISED BY PEA BRAINS

    http://ajitvadakayil.blogspot.in/2010/04/dynamic-risk-assessment-on-chemical.html

    PUT THIS IN THE WEBSITES OF PM, HOME MINISTER, DEFENSE MINISTER

    capt ajit vadakayil
    ..

    ReplyDelete